Phoenix and Scottsdale Market Update: October 2026

I pull the numbers every month because the headline you read in the news is rarely the whole story. Here is what September 2026 actually looked like in Greater Phoenix and in Scottsdale, and what I am telling my clients right now.

Greater Phoenix: September 2026

Prices held steady, and the market gave buyers more room to breathe.

• Median sale price: $450,000, flat compared with September 2025 and up about 1.1% from August.
• Median days to go under contract: 63, compared with 66 a year ago.
• Active listings: 25,251, up 4.4% from last year.
• Months of supply: 4.45, up from 3.39 in June. A balanced market sits around 5 to 6 months, so we are still on the seller-leaning side, but the gap is closing.
• Closed sales: 5,672, down 6.8% from last year.
• Homes under contract: 6,057, down 10.3% from last year.

The number I watch most closely is homes under contract, because it tells us what closes in the next 30 to 45 days. A 10% drop means fewer deals are getting done, and rates are the reason. The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.28% in the first week of October, compared with 6.34% a year ago (Freddie Mac national average).

Scottsdale: single-family homes

Scottsdale is behaving differently from the rest of the valley.

• Median sold price (trailing 12 months): $1,224,500, up from $1,170,000 a year ago, about 4.7%.
• Months of supply: 3.3, compared with 3.6 a year ago.
• Active inventory (excluding under-contract listings): 991, down about 15% from last year.
• Sale price as a share of list price: 96.1%, up from 95.2%.
• Closed sales, trailing 12 months: 4,446, compared with 3,964 a year ago.

Fewer homes for sale and a higher share of list price received means well-priced Scottsdale homes are still getting real offers. Homes that are priced optimistically are sitting. Sold homes averaged 92 days on market, up from 86 last year, which is the clearest sign that pricing strategy matters more than it did a year ago.

What this means for you

If you are selling: Price to the market on day one. In a market with 4.45 months of supply, the first two weeks decide whether you get a bidding conversation or a price reduction. I build the pricing strategy from sold comparables in your specific neighborhood, not from the valley-wide median.

If you are buying: You have more choice than you did in spring, and sellers are more willing to negotiate on repairs and closing costs. At 7%+ rates, I run the monthly payment on every home we tour so you see the real number before you fall in love with a kitchen.

If you are investing: Rates at this level squeeze cash flow, so the underwriting matters more than ever. I run rent comparables and short-term rental projections on every investment property before we make an offer.

If you want to know what these numbers mean for your home or your search, call me at 602-614-6493 or reach out through WestDesertGroup.com. We are all in this together, and I would rather you make the decision with the real numbers in front of you.

Data: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) figures as summarized by Phoenix Homes (published October 8, 2026) for Greater Phoenix, all property types; Cromford Daily Market Snapshot, single-family detached, for Scottsdale (data as of September 10, 2026); Freddie Mac weekly national mortgage rate average. Market conditions change quickly, and this is not financial advice.